The Dulles Corridor Users Group recently completed an analysis projecting that the Dulles Metrorail extension will incur $22 billion in life cycle costs for planning, construction, financing and operation during the next 40 years. This amount is similar to the most recent cost estimates for Boston's infamous "Big Dig." The estimated $5.3 billion Dulles Rail capital cost is comparable to the current expansion costs of the Panama Canal.

Construction of the 11.5-mile first phase of the 23-mile Dulles Rail extension, managed by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, is under way from Falls Church to Reston with a projected completion date of 2013 and an estimated cost of $3.2 billion, including interest expenses during construction. The second phase from Reston via Washington Dulles International Airport to Loudoun County is planned for completion in 2016 at a comparable cost.

The Big Dig was estimated in 1985 to cost $2.8 billion -- similar to initial cost estimates for Dulles Rail. But by 2006, Big Dig capital costs had increased to more than $14.6 billion, and with interest expenses, the total cost will exceed $22 billion. The high final cost of the Dulles Rail project -- almost $1 billion per mile -- is partly due to excessive reliance on Dulles Toll Road revenue bonds to be issued by MWAA but not backed by its full faith and credit or that of Virginia and Fairfax and Loudoun counties. Accordingly, the after-tax net cost of the financing currently planned is $5 billion higher than if a regional sales tax had been used for the local share of financing, as has occurred elsewhere for similarly sized rail projects.

This extra cost is a total waste. It is what happens when a politically unaccountable authority (MWAA) is allowed to bypass long-established provisions in the Virginia Constitution, which require funding for such a project to be based on legislative approval or a voter referendum to adopt new taxes and added bonded indebtedness.

Although Dulles Rail is considered a project of regional and national importance, as structured presently, the lion's share of project costs -- some $20 billion, or more than 90 percent, plus most cost overruns -- will be funded by residents and businesses of Fairfax and Loudoun counties. According to an August 2009 MWAA Bond Prospectus, tolls on the Dulles Toll Road will have to exceed $1 per mile, or more than $10 each way, by the 2040s in order to repay debt incurred for rail construction and Dulles Toll Road improvements.

By contrast, the Big Dig, Maryland's Intercounty Connector and most major road and rail projects elsewhere in the country are financed with broad-based regional taxes that have received approval either by voters in a referendum or by elected officials accountable to their constituency.

Dulles Rail will provide little increase in private or public transport mobility for most residents and businesses in the Dulles Corridor. Even rail proponents admit that most residents of the Dulles Corridor will continue to commute by automobile. At least the Big Dig project allows 250,000 cars and buses a day to move more quickly through the downtown Boston area. The rail project will be an economic albatross unduly burdening local businesses and residents for decades to come.

The Dulles Rail project is currently the subject of two state lawsuits and one federal lawsuit challenging the authority of MWAA to raise tolls, in essence taxing Toll Road users for a rail project that most will be unable to benefit from.

Christopher W. Walker

Founder

Dulles Corridor Users Group